Thursday, October 20, 2011

The Economic Geography of the NBA and the Lockout


I wrote the following for my Human Geography Class. I hope you enjoy.         

            Currently the National Basketball Association, or NBA, is experiencing a work stoppage.  The collective bargaining agreement that the National Basketball Players Association, or the NBPA, and the NBA owners had been operating under for the past 10 years ran out after this past season ended.  In negotiating for a new deal many different topics have been fought over including how basketball related income, or BRI, is divided between the players and owners, length of contracts players can be signed to, the possibility of a harder salary cap, and many other smaller matters including the Mid-Level Exception.  The one issue that is pertinent in this case study however is the possibility of merging, contracting or moving NBA franchises.  Bill Simmons states in his article “Behind the Pipes: Into the Arms of the NHL”:
I think we should contract/merge several franchises until we settle at 27 teams; I think Seattle should have a team; I think Chicago should have two teams. I don't think that the L.A., Chicago and New York teams should pay to keep struggling basketball teams afloat in Charlotte, Indiana, Sacramento, Milwaukee, Minnesota and New Orleans.
It is important to note that Chicago, unlike New York and Los Angeles, currently does not split its media market between two teams.  Simmons is the foremost expert on the NBA, particularly when it comes to off the court topics, and much of his work will be used throughout this case study.  This case study will examine the current spatial distribution of NBA franchises and how that distribution affects the league and its teams.
            All of the NBA franchises in the United States are located in cities that are in the top fifty media markets in the U.S. (“Top 50 U.S. Television Markets”).  The NBA has teams in each of the top ten media markets in the U.S. including two in Los Angeles and New York, the top two media markets in the United States.  The largest market left vacant by the NBA is Seattle, where the NBA did have a franchise from 1967 until 2008 when the Supersonics left Seattle to become the Oklahoma City Thunder (Sandomir).  Ironically enough Oklahoma City is now the smallest media market with a NBA franchise at 45th. Moreover there is an NBA franchise in 17 of the top 20 media markets in the United States (“Top 50 U.S. Television Markets”); needless to say media market size is a major factor in the distribution of NBA franchises. 
            Now that it has been established where NBA franchises are located and why they are located where they are, media market size and regional appeal, the next step is to look at what effect location has on an individual franchise both on and off the court.  When it comes to championships won, the 8 franchises in the top 6 media markets have won 41 of the 63 NBA championships since the inception of the league (Florida) that is 65% of the league’s championships held by just 20% of the league’s franchises.  In theory if every team actually had an equal shot of winning the championship, something it seems the league would like, these numbers would be more proportional.  Now in a total free market system this would make a lot of sense that these teams are winning a disproportionate about of titles but the NBA is not set-up to be a total free market system, it actually has rules and regulations such as a salary cap, the luxury tax, inexpensive rookie contracts and even some revenue sharing in order to ensure as much parity as possible but obviously none of those measures have worked.  The first red flag that would indicate why these teams have such a competitive advantage on the court is because they, more than likely, make the most money off it.  Of the 8 franchises in the cities within the top 6 media markets 4 are also in the top 8 in total revenue and those same four franchises, the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics, are the four most valuable franchises in the league .  If you count only those four most valuable franchises 13% of the league’s teams hold 57% of the league’s championships, an even more striking statistic than just looking at the media markets alone ("The NBA's Most Valuable Teams").  Money is not everything though, the New York Knicks play in both the largest media market in the country (“Top 50 U.S. Television Markets”) and are the most valuable franchise in the league ("The NBA's Most Valuable Teams") but only have 2 championships to their name both coming in a three year span almost 40 years ago.  A factor that cannot be ruled out is the ability for players to choose the team of their choice in free agency.  Players tend to prefer major media market cities, wealthy franchises, winning tradition, and warm locations.  Milwaukee for example is neither of these; it is the sixth smallest market (“Top 50 U.S. Television Markets”), is the least valuable franchise in the league ("The NBA's Most Valuable Teams"), has just one championship to their name and is notoriously cold.  It is no wonder players like John Salley, Gary Payton, and Todd Day had absolutely no desire to come to and play in Milwaukee (Schmidt).  The team that best illustrates how to overcome its geographic hurdles is the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs have won 4 titles over the past decade and is second in the league in championships per capita behind only Boston whose 17 championships keep it on top of the pile (Florida) even though it is the sixth largest media market in the league while San Antonio is the 4th smallest media market in the league (“Top 50 U.S. Television Markets”) but is in a warm climate and, in no small part to its four championships, is the ninth most valuable team in the league despite having the 12th most revenue ("The NBA's Most Valuable Teams").  So the case of San Antonio shows that geographic disadvantages can be overcome but they are one of the few franchises that have shown the capability to do so.  Only Detroit and Houston have current franchises not in the top six media markets that have won multiple titles (Florida).  There is no doubt that money and media market size play a tremendous role in determining what a franchise is capable of.
            When it comes to the current lockout, the idea from the owner’s perspective is that the league is losing money and thus must restructure the collective bargaining agreement with the NBPA in order to become profitable.  The owners have a point; over half of the franchises in the league lose money year to year ("The NBA's Most Valuable Teams").   So examine Simmons’ proposal of making two new franchises out of four existing ones.  Chicago currently has one team, the Bulls, that is the third most valuable, has the third highest revenue and has the second highest operating income in the league ("The NBA's Most Valuable Teams").  Surely the city could support another team.  He also wants a team to return to Seattle; a team there would secure a franchise in 14 of the top 15 and 18 in the top 20 media markets (“Top 50 U.S. Television Markets”) something that, as demonstrated above, tends to lead toward both on the court and off the court success.  The new object is to find what four teams to contract or merge in order to make this possible.  Combining factors of market size, franchise value, revenue and operating income those four franchises should be Milwaukee, Charlotte, Memphis and New Orleans.  If the owners merged these four teams into two new teams as they saw fit and place one in Seattle and one in Chicago they would be able to make concessions in other areas and get the league back up and running which would be better for the owners, players, cities and fans.

Works Cited

Florida, Richard. "Is the Geography of NBA Dominance Shifting?."Creative Class, 1 June 2011.
Web. 20 Oct. 2011. <http://www.creativeclass.com/creative_class/2011/06/01/is-the-geography-of-nba-dominance-shifting/>.

Map of NBA Teams. Map. SLC Dunk. SB Nation, 5 Mar. 2011. Web. 20 Oct. 2011.
<http://www.slcdunk.com/2011/3/5/2031804/nba-divisional-realignment-a-modest
proposal>.

"The NBA's Most Valuable Teams." Forbes. Ed. Kurt Badenhausen, Michael K. Ozanian, and
Christina Settimi. Forbes, 26 Jan. 2011. Web. 20 Oct. 2011.
<http://www.forbes.com/lists/2011/32/basketball-valuations-11_land.html>.

Sandomir, Richard. "Sonics Given Approval to Move to Oklahoma." New York Times
19 Apr. 2008. Web. 20 Oct. 2011. <http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/sports/basketball/19sonics.html?ref=
seattlesupersonics>.

Schmidt, Jeremy. "Best of a Bad Situation: 19. Todd Day." Bucksketball. Ed. Jeremy Schmidt.
26 Aug. 2011. Web. 20 Oct. 2011. <http://www.bucksketball.com/2011/08/>.

Simmons, Bill. "Behind the Pipes: Into the Arms of the NHL." Grantland. Ed. Bill Simmons.
ESPN, 19 Oct. 2011. Web. 20 Oct. 2011.
<http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7123705/arms-nhl>.

"Top 50 U.S. Television Markets." Janson Media. Janson Media, 26 Dec. 2008. Web.
20 Oct. 2011. <http://www.janson.com/media/2008/12/26/top-50-us-television-markets/>.

Friday, September 2, 2011

WIAC Football 2011 Preview


WIAC Preview:


2010 Standings:

1.  UW-Whitewater  15-0 overall, 7-0 WIAC
 2.  UW-Stevens Point 7-3, 5-2
3.  UW-Stout 6-4, 4-3
4.  UW-Oshkosh 4-6, 3-4
5.  UW-Platteville 5-5, 3-4
6.  UW-La Crosse 3-7, 3-4
7.  UW-Eau Claire 4-6, 2-5
8.  UW-River Falls 1-9, 1-6


2011 Schedule

Games to Watch

Week 1: UWL @ UWW (nc)
It’s a non-conference match-up between these teams and the first game for Coach D at
La Crosse.  It is always good to see a game between the two most storied teams in the conference.

Week 2: UWEC @ St. John’s
UWEC knocked off the Johnnies in surprising fashion last year at home and now will have to head up to Collegeville, MN to face a St. John’s unit that certainly has revenge on its mind.  Not only that but the Johnnies have some of the most passionate fans around and a hard to pronounce but still pretty cool tailgate party.

Week 3: Wheaton (IL) @ UWP
If Platteville wants to come out of non-conference with a winning record they will probably have to beat Wheaton to do it.

Week 4: UWL @ UWP
It is the only conference game on the slate for the week and whoever wins gets to be on top of the conference for a week.

Week 5: UWEC @ UWST
An early rivalry game between 2 schools that are about a 30 minute drive apart.

Week 6: UWST @ UWSP
This game will basically be for 2nd place in the conference and give the winner a chance to make the playoffs.

Week 7: UWST @ UWW
If Stout wins the week prior they’ll carry momentum and their stout defense (see what I did there) into Perkins Stadium with a chance to knockoff the Warhawks.

Week 9: UWP @ UWRF
Despite the struggles that River Falls has had of late it has been a while since UWP was able to beat the Falcons at Ramer field. They’ll need to get a W there this season in order to stay afloat.

Week 10: UWSP @ UWW
If Point wins their week 6 match-up against Stout they will have a chance to repeat what they did in 2008, beat Whitewater at Perkins Stadium en route to a conference title.

Week 11: UWO @ UWSP
A late season rivalry game that Oshkosh will have to win in order to start to make the jump from pretender to contender.

Week 12: UWEC @ UWRF
This week matches up all the teams that play their phony-baloney non-conference games against each other.  River Falls gave former coach John O’Grady a win in their final game against Eau Claire last season for their only win of the year.  UWEC will surely be sure not to have a letdown this season.

2011 Outlook:

I’ll go through each team in order of how I think they’ll finish and give best case scenario, worst case scenario and predicted conference record.  They will also be grouped with teams in similar circumstances.

Group 1: UW Whitewater (a class unto themselves)

Best Case Scenario: 7-0, 7th consecutive WIAC title and a 3-peat for the national title
Worst Case Scenario: 6-1, lose to Point or Stout; lose in title game to Mt. Union
Prediction: See Best Case Scenario

Group 2: UW Stevens Point &UW Stout (contenders with strong defense and questions on offense)

UW Stevens Point
Best Case Scenario: 7-0, Conference champs and make a run in the playoffs
Worst Case Scenario: 4-3, Losses to Stout, UWW and a lower team make 2011 a disappointment
Prediction: 6-1 with their only loss being to UWW, slight edge over Stout because they're at home

UW Stout
Best Case Scenario: See Point
Worst Case Scenario: 4-3, Losses to Point, UWW and a lower team make 2011 a disappointment
Prediction: 5-2 with losses @ UWW and Point

Group 3: UW Platteville, UW Oshkosh & UW Eau Claire (middling teams looking to break through)

UW Oshkosh
Best Case Scenario: 6-1, break through beating everyone but the Warhawks
Worst Case Scenario: 2-5, fall back with loses against any team as good as or better than them
Prediction: 3-4, wins over UWRF, UWP and UWL

UW Platteville
Best Case Scenario: 5-2, get a win at Point in nonconference but lose to the Pointers at home
Worst Case Scenario: 2-5, inexplicably lose at UWRF
Prediction: 3-4, wins over UWRF, UWEC and UWL

UW Eau Claire
Best Case Scenario: 4-3, only unable to get past the top teams in the conference
Worst Case Scenario: 1-6, Unable to control time of possession take several tough losses
Prediction: 3-4 wins over UWRF, UWO and UWL

Group 4: UW La Crosse and UW River Falls (Once proud programs that have fallen on hard times)

UW La Crosse
Best Case Scenario: 4-3, Coach D works some magic and gets the Eagles up with the big boys
Worst Case Scenario: 0-7, lack of continuity leads to disaster
Prediction:  1-6, this program is too proud to go 0-7 they beat UWRF

UW River Falls
Best Case Scenario: 3-4, Coach Walker uses the ground game to get his team some wins
Worst Case Scenario: 0-7, No late season magic this time for the Falcons, they are overmatched
Prediction: See Worst Case Scenario



Big Question:

Can anyone beat Whitewater?

Probably not but if someone can my money is on Stout.  They have a very good defense and have the more proven QB between them and fellow contender Stevens Point. (I still like Point head to head against Stout but only because of home field advantage).  If you’re going to beat UWW it will have to be through the air and if there is a team that can do that and slow down Levell Coppage, Stout is that team.

Player to Watch:

Levell Coppage


Coppage is a sick talent.  He has rushed for over 2,100 yards the past 2 years and that was with Antwan Anderson with him in the backfield.  Coppage is good enough to make up for UWW’s losses on the O-line and has a legit shot to earn the 2,400 yards he needs to become the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher regardless of division.  That means Coppage can end up with more rushing yards than this man.  If you only watch one player this year watch Coppage.

Bottom Line:



This is Whitewater’s title to lose.  The conference is stronger this year than last year so games against the Warhawks will be closer but likely not close enough.  Stout and Point should battle for the 2 spot while UWO, UWP and UWEC will fail to break through losing to the top teams and playing a proverbial game of rock, paper, scissors against each other due to match-ups.  While there is some optimism at UWL I just don’t see a team with that few starters coming back off an already bad team and it will take more than 1 season for Matt Walker to get River Falls off the deck.

Extra Point:

Thank you so much for reading and for more information on the WIAC Football scene including my interview with Doug Wagen, voice of the UW-Platteville Pioneers, you can listen to the WRST WIAC preview show at 12pm on Saturday September 3rd at wrst.org.  Just click on the listen now button.  That show will be followed by the broadcast of the UW-Oshkosh v. Central College game, yours truly will be on the broadcast and it should be a good one.  Thanks again for reading.


TTFN

Thursday, September 1, 2011

WIAC preview two-a-days Part 8: UW-Platteville


UW-Platteville:

Fast Facts:

Head Coach: Mike Emendorfer; 13th season at UWP; 42-77
Starters Returning/Lost on Offense: 9/2
Starters Returning/Lost on Defense: 8/3
Starters Returning/Lost at Kicker: 2/0
Returning All-WIAC: Zak Brinkman (Sr., Punter, 2010-Second); Corey Marks (Jr., DL, 2010-First); Nick Snyder (Jr., LB, 2010-Honorable); Lee Vlasak (Jr., All-Purpose, 2010-Second)

2010 Recap:

Platteville was a young team in 2010 and their youth showed in the outcomes of their games. After opening with wins over Buena Vista and rival Dubuque the Pioneers dropped a 51-20 decision.  They then lost to UWW before rattling of wins against Eau Claire and La Crosse but then laid an egg in Oshkosh losing 14-41.  UWP bounced back with a win against River Falls but finished the season with back to back losses to Stout and Stevens Point.  Lee Vlasak emerged as a real threat as he had over 1,000 all-purpose yards for the Pioneers. At quarterback Nick Anderson had a pretty good year but went through some growing pains throwing for over 2,000 yards and 11 TDs but also threw 9 picks.  The defense was pretty good against the run allowing just over 150 yards per game but the pass defense was last in the WIAC in pass defense allowing over 230 yards per game.  The Pioneer rush offense also ranked last in the league.

2011 Schedule

2011 Outlook:

The Pioneers will probably be a better team in 2011 but will it make any difference in their final record/conference standings.  I don’t think it will.  The problem for the pioneers is that everyone should be as good as or better than they were last year with the possible exception of La Crosse.  Platteville does get both teams that are at a similar level as them, Oshkosh and Eau Claire, at home and get Stevens Point at home in the last week of the season as well.  The schedule couldn’t get much better for UWP and they might just have a breakthrough season, unfortunately I’ve said that about 3 other teams so far as well.

Big Question:

Can Platteville win at River Falls and beat Point in one of their two games against the Pointers?

In the words of Doug Wagen, voice of the Pioneers, it has been a long time since either of those things has happened.  If the Pioneers manage to knock off the Pointers and take care of business against Falls then they should achieve their goal of a winning record in conference.  If not, the pioneers can expect another mediocre record.

Player to Watch:

Lee Vlasak

While Coach Emendorfer’s philosophy regarding the run game has always been “we’ll run it after we catch it” when your best player is a running back you should probably adjust your game plan a little bit.  That being said I think Coach E will always be more concerned with Vlasak’s all-purpose yardage more than just straight rushing yardage.  Vlasak scored 13 touchdowns last year, including 5 in one game, and will look to reach pay dirt even more often this season.

Bottom Line:

Platteville will probably end up near the middle of the pack this year.  While they look to be improved there is very little room for upward movement in the WIAC this season.  The Pioneers are looking really good for the 2012 season with the number of juniors on this roster but for 2011 I expect more of the same from Mike Emendorfer’s team

Extra Point:

If you want to hear my interview with Doug Wagen, voice of the Pioneers, you can listen to the WRST WIAC preview show at 12pm on Saturday September 3rd at wrst.org.  That show will be followed by the broadcast of the UW-Oshkosh v. Central College game.

Tomorrow I’ll give some quick hits on each team (in case you missed any of the 2-a-days), give you key games to watch this season and make my full conference predictions in my 2011 WIAC preview.

TTFN

WIAC Preview two-a-days Part 7: UW-La Crosse


UW-La Crosse


Fast Facts:

Head Coach: Joel Detwiler; 1st season at UWL
Starters Returning/Lost on Offense: 4/7
Starters Returning/Lost on Defense: 6/5
Starters Returning/Lost at Kicker: 2/0
Returning All-WIAC: Derek Dreher (Sr., DB, 2008-Second, 2009-Honorable); Lee Lauters (Sr., RB, 2010-Second); Donovan Winter (Sr., DB, 2010-Second)

 
2010 Recap:

Larry Terry’s final year was not a happy one.  After several successful seasons, particularly with 3 conference titles from 2002-2004, the Eagles have fallen on hard times.  The Eagles finished 5-5 in 2009 and 2-5 in conference play and then finished 2010 with a 3-7 record overall with a 3-4 record in the WIAC.  UWL did get close to knocking off Mary-Hardin-Baylor, a perennial power in the SAC but lost their first 4 games of the season including their first loss to UW-Oshkosh in almost 40 years.  UWL did scrap together home wins against River Falls and Eau Claire and in their biggest win of the season beat Stout on the road on a last minute drive 29-28 on October 30th.  UWL was lead in rushing by Lee Lauters who rushed for 746 yards and 6 TDs.  Nick Anker had a shaky season at quarterback throwing for over 2,000 yards and 14 scores but also threw an alarming 12 interceptions.  It was a mixed bag at wide out as Travis Bordeau caught 65 balls for 650 yards and one score while Kyle Steffen led the team in TD catches with 5.  The defense did pretty well against the pass but struggled in the running game allowing 188 yards per game on the ground.  But it wasn’t the defense that lost this team games in 2010, it was the offense that only scored 21 points 4 times and went 3-1 in those contests.

2011 Outlook:

Coach Terry is out and Joel Detwiler is in for UWL.  Detwiler is from Oregon Wisconsin and played 4 years at UW-Platteville as a defensive, so he knows the conference well.  He worked as an assistant at UWP from 2000-2004 until he took a position at Wartburg College in Iowa.  From 2004-2008 he was the linebackers and strength coach for the nights before taking over as defensive coordinator in 2008.  The Knights won 2 IIAC titles with Detwiler heading up the defense.  Detwiler will be calling the plays on defense and work closely with the DBs this season.  Detwiler also brought in Reed Hoskins who was on the offensive side of the ball at Wartburg while Detwiler was running the defense.  In his time at Wartburg Hoskins’ offense ranked second in the IIAC in total offense and 3rd in total scoring.  It will be an uphill battle for both Detwiler and Hoskins this season.  Detwiler will have to shore up a defense that struggled against the run last year and Hoskins will have to deal with at least 7 new starters on an offense that struggled to score last year.  UWL will come out in a pro-set on offense and a 4-3 defense this season.  Offensive line will be a problem this year for UWL.  They only return 1 starter on that line and he only started the final 5 games of last year in Sophomore Andrew Hermann.  UWL’s number 2 receiver a year ago, Alex Maxinoski, is back as is Tight End Ross Slovensky.  Luckily for the Eagles Lee Lauters also is back for his senior season.  The defensive backfield should be well off with Derek Dreher and Jake Meckstroth back.  On the defensive line Nicholas Matthews and Donovan Winter could have break out years but the linebacker position is pretty thin.

Big Question:

Who is going to start at quarterback?


With Nick Anker gone word on the west coast is that a quarterback battle brewing in La Crosse,  between Mike Butterfield and Andy Sires.  Now I’m not at practice everyday but to me this seems pretty simple that Butterfield should get the job.  He was 6 for 7 passing last season for 86 yards and a score.  He also ran for 171 yards and a score. But the coaches like Sires' arm.  At least early I'll take the guy with game experience thus I think Butterfield is the logical choice.

Player to Watch:

Lee Lauters


Lauters might want to get Taylor Edwards’ phone number, or friend him on facebook or follow him on twitter or whatever people are doing these days because those two are going to be in very similar situations, good running backs on bad teams.  Lauters is more talented than what his rushing total shows.  Lauters averaged 5 yards per carry in 2010 and averaged 93.2 yards per game, not bad.  The problem for Lauters this year is that his O-line will be the most inexperienced in the conference.  The passing game might also take a hit with Anker gone as well.  What might help him, or could hurt him, is the pro style offense. Lacrosse ran a zone-read shotgun look under Larry Terry, which fit Lauters’ style but kept his number of carries low.  If Lauters can adapt to this new system (we’ll see Saturday how different it really is) and get a higher number of carries he will solidify himself as one of the conference’s top backs.

Bottom Line:

This shapes up to be a rough year for the Eagles.  The return the fewest starters by far of any WIAC team not named UW-Whitewater and they still have 2 fewer returning starters than the Warhawks.  Add in a tougher schedule, playing at Mary-Hardin-Baylor who is ranked 6th to start the season and playing UWW twice, loss of not just quantity of players but also quality at key positions and a new coach and new system.  I personally don’t see La Crosse having that much success this year, despite what this video says.

The Platteville Preview will be out later this afternoon with the WIAC overview coming out Friday.

TTFN

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

WIAC Preview two-a-days Part 6: UW-Oshkosh


UW-Oshkosh


Fast Facts:

Head Coach: Pat Cerroni; 5th season at UWO; 19-20
Starters Returning/Lost on Offense: 7/4
Starters Returning/Lost on Defense: 8/3
Starters Returning/Lost at Kicker: 2/0
Returning All-WIAC: Garrie Fox (Sr., WR, 2010-Second); Vince Sciano (Sr., DL, 2010-Second); Nate Wara (Jr., QB, 2010-Second)


2010 Recap:

2010 was a somewhat disappointing year for the Titans.  After finishing 4-6 in 2009 Oshkosh looked to improve on their record in 2010 but they finished an identical 4-6, albeit against much tougher competition.  Oshkosh played teams that were ranked #7, #2 and #1 at the time they played them in Central College (IA), Mt. Union and UW-Whitewater.  Oshkosh played pretty well at home but only hosted 4 games in 2010 and went 2-2 but those 2 loses were to Mt. Union and Whitewater.  Hitting the road was more of a struggle.  Oshkosh went 2-4 on the road with wins coming against lowly River Falls and NAIA Lambuth.  The Titans failed to beat teams that finished in the middle to bottom of the pack on the road including losses at Point, Stout and probably the worst game Oshkosh played all year in Eau Claire.  The highlight of the season came when Oshkosh beat Lacrosse on October 2nd for their first win against Lacrosse since 1972.  Nate Wara had a breakout year completing 66% of his passes for 2,135 yards and 22 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions.  One of the Titans’ biggest weaknesses was the run game.  UWO lost starter Jeremy Roach against UWL and Charlie Weismann was unavailable against Whitewater and Stout, meaning UWO was down to its 3rd and 4th running backs for it’s final 2 games.  The struggles in the run game are typified by the fact that Nate Wara led the team in rushing with 555 yards. Garrie Fox meanwhile caught 47 balls for 716 yards and 9 scores, pretty good for a guy who is 5’11” with his cleats on.

2011 Outlook:

Many of the key players from that 2010 team are back this year including Wara, Fox and Roach.  Gone however are Paul Coburn, Juston Wara, Craig McClelland, and Matt Haass all big, tall red zone targets for Wara as those guys caught a combined 11 scores.  Also gone are Alex Mueske on the offensive line and Nate Heard at corner.  The entire defensive line is back starting 3 seniors and a junior in Andrew Thompson.  The linebacker is also deep with 5 major contributors for 3 spots.  Major areas of concern are at Superback and Defensive back.  Opponents averaged 12.3 yards per catch against the Titans’ defensive backfield last year and now they have to replace a real talent in Nate Heard.  Jack Breese is back at Free Safety and Charlie Stueck is back at corner but Manfred Johnson will need to step up in Heard’s spot and former kickoff specialist Zach Wettengel steps in at Strong Safety. Jon Krysiak and Brad Weiler look to fill the void at Super Back.  Krysiak did letter and played primarily special teams last season.  Other spots of concern are at wide out and offensive line.  Wara will have to make a bit of an adjustment from throwing to the like of Coburn, McClelland and his brother Juston who were all 6’3” or taller to a group of guys who are all less than 6 feet tall with the exception of Caleb Voss a 6’2” sophomore out of Van Dyne.  On the O-line coach Cerroni has managed to piece together a group with game experience, though not all necessarily at their current spot.  The Titans will need to up their ground game on both sides of the ball in order to have a successful season, which leads to my big question.

Big Question:

Will the defense be good enough for the Titans to make a step up?


The 2010 unit allowed 383 yards per game in total offense and 28.4 points per game. Particularly alarming was the defense against the rush.  The Titans’ gave up 197.7 yards per game on the ground, which was actually more than they gave up through the air.  The hope for the Titans is that the experience in the front seven will turn into production.  The UWO defense will always have an up hill battle due to the up-tempo nature of the offense, but if this team wants to be up there with the Stevens Points and Stouts of the world the defense will have to step up.  If it doesn’t it will be another disappointing season for the team with the longest conference title drought in the league.

Player to Watch:

Garrie Fox


Nate Wara might have been an obvious choice but I’m not here to simply state the obvious. Wara is spectacular and makes this offense go no doubt but I’ve been told that Garrie Fox, not Nate Wara, is the best player at his position on this team (i.e. Fox is a better wide out than Wara is a quarterback).  That is some high praise but Fox backs it up.  Fox isn’t very big but he is fast and runs routes well.  Folks in camp have been raving about Fox and with good reason, Fox seems primed so an outstanding final campaign.

Bottom Line:

This team will go as far as the defense allows them.  The schedule gets no easier despite adding a home game.  The Titans will have to play at Mt. Union, Stout (in a non-conference game), Eau Claire, Point and Platteville.  The Titans will have to do what they couldn’t do last year; win a game on the road against a tough opponent.  If they can to that, this season will be a success.

I wrap team previews up tomorrow with looks at Platteville and Lacrosse.  Friday I will have an overview of the conference as a whole with key games to watch and my predictions of how the season will go.

TTFN

WIAC Two-a-days Part 5: UW-Eau Claire


UW-Eau Claire:

Fast Facts:

Head Coach: Todd Glaser; 9th season (6th at UWEC); 41-41 (overall) / 28-24 (UWEC)
Starters Returning/Lost on Offense: 11/0
Starters Returning/Lost on Defense: 8/3
Starters Returning/Lost at Kicker: 1/1
Returning All-WIAC: David Goodman (Sr., WR, 2009-Second, 2010-Honorable); Andy Neumann (Sr., LB, 2010-Second); Joel Sweeney (So., RB, 2010-Second); Matt Withrow (Sr., OL, 2010-Second)

2010 Recap:

The BluGolds had an up and down season in 2010 winning 3 of their first 4 games including victories over perennial MIAC power St. John’s and a Stevens Point team that finished at 2nd in the conference. Things then took a turn for the worse as UWEC lost 5 of its final 6.  In each of its losses in that stretch the BluGolds failed to hold their opponents under 35 points. Joel Sweeney emerged as big time back rushing for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in his freshman campaign.  Austin Neu took over at quarterback after serving as the team’s punter in 2009 and threw for 1,766 yards and 9 TDs but also threw 7 picks. David Goodman was the team’s top receiver with 47 catches for 684 yards and 3 scores.

2011 Schedule

2011 Outlook:

As noted in the “fast facts’ section the BluGolds return ALL ELEVEN STARTERS on offense: how is that for continuity?  Also the defense returns 3 of its top 4 tacklers but that might not be a good thing as this team allowed 31.5 points per game overall and 34.8 ppg in conference play in 2010.  While returning 11 starters on offense is encouraging, particularly having all 5 offensive linemen back, I still question Neu’s ability to run the offense, his arm won’t wow anybody and his decision making is suspect given his near 1:1 interception to touchdown ratio.  But he should have it pretty easy because the BluGold run game should be sick with Sweeney and the entire offensive line back. But run defense is going to be an issue for this team which gave up 180 yards per game on the ground in 2010.  And with how many good backs there are in the WIAC stopping the ground game is paramount to success.  I expect UWEC to slow the game down and play time of possession to try to keep the offense on the field, and thus their defense off it, for as long as possible.

Big Question:

Will the BluGolds be able to out gain their opponents on the ground this season?

They couldn’t do it last year despite having a 1,000 yard rusher.  They were probably hurt by the fact that the line gave up 28 sacks for 153 yards.  That is about 3 sacks per game with 15 yards lost right there. By contrast UWEC got to the quarterback only 14 times last year. That’s right; Neu was on the ground twice as often as his opposing quarterbacks.  Hopefully for Eau Claire that continuity on the offensive line can help open up some holes for Sweeney and keep Neu upright.  On the flipside of this issue UWEC can’t have safeties Chad Samuelson and Kyle Thorpe be their number 3 and 4 leading tacklers again. Linebacker Kalan Stittleburg and lineman Nate Johnson need to join Andy Neumann near the top of the tacklers list in order for UWEC to best their opponents on the ground.

Player to Watch:

Joel Sweeney

This guy is an absolute beast.  The fact that he rushed for over 1,000 yards in his freshman year is incredible.  Especially considering that opponents could load up the box against him. Sweeney is a 6 foot 1 inch 249 pound bruiser in the mold of a John Clay. Sweeney turned many heads last year including that of Joel Badzinski who featured him in an article about former WIAC freshmen phenoms.  The way I see things Sweeney is primed for a huge year.

Bottom Line:

The BluGolds need to ride Sweeney this year.  If they can win time of possession and gain more rushing yards than their opponents the BluGolds will be in every game.  If not, this looks to be another long season for the boys from Carson Park.

Extra Point:

Here is some audio of Head Coach Todd Glaser talking about his team. 

Part 6 will be out later today and will feature the UW-Oshkosh Titans.